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For McCain, it’s good to be alive |
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By Byron York
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Posted: 05/02/07 07:15 PM [ET] |
Going into tonight’s Republican presidential debate at the Reagan Library in California, Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) has had to spend a lot of time explaining that he is not dead.
“We’re in good shape,” McCain said of himself and his campaign after reports surfaced that he had raised significantly less money than GOP rivals Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney and was laying off campaign staff.
Nobody quite believed him. McCain seemed tired and flagging. His former best friends in the press knocked him for trying to win the Republican nomination by being a Republican. Conservative Republicans remembered why they didn’t like him in 2000.
It all added up. In national polls, McCain fell 23 points behind new frontrunner Giuliani.
Things looked bad. But fortunately, nobody told the voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
In a series of new polls by the American Research Group, McCain is the leader in all three early-voting states.
In Iowa, McCain is at 26 percent, with Giuliani at 19 percent, Romney at 14 percent and not-yet-a-candidate Fred Thompson at 12 percent.
In New Hampshire, McCain is at 29 percent, with former next-door governor Romney at 24 percent, Giuliani at 17 percent and — maybe they don’t watch “Law & Order” in New Hampshire — Thompson at seven percent.
In South Carolina, McCain is at 36 percent, with Giuliani at 23 percent, Thompson at 10 percent, and Romney at six percent.
In all three states, McCain leads among people who identify themselves as Republicans and those — shades of old — who identify themselves as independents likely to take part in the GOP caucus or primary.
What’s going on?
Well, some of the change is due to events beyond McCain’s control. The prospect of Thompson entering the race has changed things and seems to be cutting into Giuliani’s support more than McCain’s.
But McCain’s improved fortunes are also the result of his reminding people that he’s still John McCain. Anyone who watched his formal announcement speech in New Hampshire on April 25 got the idea. “I don’t seek the office out of a sense of entitlement,” McCain told the crowd.
“I owe America more than she has ever owed me. Thirty-four years ago, I came home from an extended absence abroad. While I was away, I fell in love with my country. I learned that what’s good for America is good enough for me. I have been an imperfect servant of my country ever since, in uniform and in office, in war and peace. I have never lived a single day, in good times or in bad, that I haven’t thanked God for the privilege.”
Okay, the “extended absence abroad” thing was a little coy. But no one else in the race, Republican or Democrat, can say something like that.
It’s true, of course, that McCain’s unwavering support for the war in Iraq could be his undoing. But it might be that Republican voters will be impressed by a man who’s taking a giant risk for what he believes.
For a while, McCain seemed to lose sight of why he is running for president. “His campaign became about inevitability,” says one unaffiliated GOP strategist, and voters don’t like campaigns that are about a candidate’s inevitability.
But now, McCain is back on track, albeit a risky one. “You can’t sell me on hopelessness,” he said in his announcement speech. “You can’t convince me our problems are insurmountable.”
Neither are his own.
York is a White House correspondent for
National Review. His column appears in The Hill each week.
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