Robert Rector was waiting for this week.

A senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, Rector has been crunching numbers on the cost of illegal immigration for years. And now, as Congress fumbles toward some sort of deal, his work is giving us a new perspective on
the debate.

Rector set out to answer this question: Is the presence of illegal immigrants, mostly from Mexico, a boon for the U.S. economy, or a drag?

As it turns out, the best way to get the answer is not to look specifically at illegal immigrants but instead at the economics of the 17.7 million American households made up of people without a high school degree.

We know a lot about that group — how much they make, how much they spend, what benefits they receive from the government.

Why is it relevant to illegal immigration? Well, close to two-thirds of the illegal immigrant workforce in America falls into that category. The more you learn about workers without a degree, the more you learn about illegal immigrants.  

First, Rector found that people without high school degrees, like most everybody else, pay a lot in taxes — an annual average of $9,689 per household. That number includes $2,509 in Social Security tax, as well as $1,486 in state and local sales taxes, $1,474 in federal income tax, $1,371 in property tax, and smaller amounts in all sorts of other levies. (Rector’s figures are from 2004.)

But those without high school degrees also receive a disproportionately large amount of government benefits — $32,138 per household per year, according to Rector.

The biggest part of that is $11,963 in what is called means-tested aid, that is, aid specifically for low-income households. That includes Medicaid, tax credits, food stamps, housing aid, and dozens of other federal programs.

Another $10,026 comes in direct benefits, that is, benefits available to all Americans who qualify for them. That includes Social Security, Medicare, and unemployment insurance.

Other benefits counted by Rector include public education, police and fire protection, public transportation, and dozens of other services.

Put it all together, and Rector found that the average low-skill household receives $22,449 more in benefits than it pays in taxes.

Rector then multiplied that $22,449 by 17.7 million — the number of low-skill households in the U.S. — and found that the group cost U.S. taxpayers $397 billion in 2004.

Multiplied by 10, that number means that such households will cost taxpayers at least $4 trillion in the next decade — unless Congress makes the cost even higher.

“This number would go up significantly if changes in immigration policy lead to substantial increases in the number of low-skill immigrants entering the country and receiving services,” Rector concluded.

Advocates of a more liberal immigration policy don’t question that illegal immigrants cost the government more than they pay in taxes. But they argue that those illegal immigrants are responsible for a large amount of economic growth, which far
outweighs their cost to taxpayers.

That is hard to measure, and Rector argues that even when growth is factored in, illegal immigrants are still a substantial net liability.

The bottom line? Well, it doesn’t mean that we should not provide benefits for the poor, the elderly and others. The government has made a lot of promises to a lot of people, and it should keep its word.

But it does mean we should not adopt policies that will vastly increase the number of low-skill households in this country.
What sense would that make?

York is a White House correspondent for National Review. His column appears in The Hill each week. E-mail: This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it .