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Why Thompson thinks he can win |
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By Byron York
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Posted: 09/07/07 07:08 PM [ET] |
So now, finally, we have a Fred Thompson presidential candidacy.
The new candidate, fresh from his Schwarzeneggeresque announcement on Jay Leno, doesn’t have much patience for those who say he waited too long to get in the race.
“I don’t think people are going to say, ‘You know, that guy would make a very good president, but he just didn’t get in soon enough,’” Thompson told Leno Wednesday night — while the other GOP candidates debated in New Hampshire.
It’s a good line. But it is, in fact, too late for Thompson to run the kind of conventional candidacy — mega-fundraising, big ground organizations in the early primary states — that Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) have conducted.
The question is whether Thompson can win without that conventional game. And if so, how will he do it?
Certainly, his appeal will be unique, with a star quality that makes him more than just another former senator who wants to be president.
But Giuliani, for one, gets the rock-star treatment from Republican audiences, too.
And what about message? Will Thompson’s be that different from his fellow GOP candidates’?
There’s no doubt Thompson will be strong on national defense and aggressive in dealing with the threat of terrorism.
But what other major Republican candidate won’t be strong on national defense and aggressive in dealing with the threat of terrorism?
Likewise, Thompson will be strong on fiscal responsibility. But what other GOP candidate won’t?
Even in those areas where he might differ from the Republican field — abortion and immigration — Thompson’s positions will still track with Iowa and New Hampshire front-runner Mitt Romney.
But all that may be beside the point. What Thompson will sell in his campaign is a personal quality of leadership, not policy details.
You can see that in the one issue Thompson talks about more than the other candidates — entitlement reform.
Thompson often makes the case that Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid are going broke.
But he knows that George W. Bush, at the height of his presidential powers, devoted months to Social Security reform — and got nowhere.
“What’s happened in the past is interesting and relevant but not in any way determinative of the future,” Thompson said when I asked him about it last month. “Somebody’s going to have to talk truth to people and address those things and see what kind of response you get.”
But how could Thompson get different results from Bush?
“I think that’s the leadership that can only come from the top,” he said.
And that is the essence of the Thompson appeal. He’s not pretending to have new ideas about everything. He’s saying he can get things done that other candidates can’t.
Whether people will believe that is another matter. When it comes to getting things done, Giuliani and Romney will say two words — “executive experience” — over and over.
They’ve got it, and Thompson doesn’t.
And right now, they are running tightly organized campaigns, while Thompson’s has been somewhat chaotic, with lots of departures and much moving about.
Now, normally a few staff changes do not say much about a candidate. But a lot of them suggest that the man at the top doesn’t have a firm hand.
We saw that with McCain, whose campaign woes made us wonder about his ability to run the store.
At least, that’s what the doubters say. Now Thompson has a chance to prove them wrong.
York is a White House correspondent for National Review. His column appears in The Hill each week.
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